As the 2022 FIFA World Cup approaches, bettors worldwide are preparing for what promises to be one of the most exciting betting events. There is still much unknown about how the event will play out, but that doesn’t stop the sharpest minds in the industry from trying to get an edge on the bookmakers.
Many factors will come into play when betting on the World Cup 2022, including team strength, form, draw luck, and injuries. Nevertheless, with a bit of research and some expert insights, every bettor can put themselves in a position to profit from the World Cup. To help get you started, we’ve put together a betting guide for the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
How to make accurate predictions for Qatar’s soccer matches?
The first step in making an accurate World Cup prediction is understanding how bookmakers set their odds. The vast majority of bookmakers use what’s called the Poisson Distribution to calculate their soccer odds.
The Poisson Distribution is a statistical tool that predicts the likelihood of an event occurring given its historical data. For example, if Team A has won 6 out of its last 10 games against Team B, the Poisson Distribution would predict a 60% chance of Team A winning again.
Similarly, suppose you know that, on average, 2 goals are scored per game between two teams. In that case, you can use the Poisson distribution to estimate the probability of there being 0 goals (very unlikely), 1 goal (slightly more likely), 2 goals (most probable), etc.
The Poisson Distribution is a powerful tool, but it does have its limitations. For instance, it only works with historical data. That means that if there’s a significant change in one of the teams (e.g., a new coach), the predicted probabilities will be less reliable. The Poisson distribution can only predict the probability of an event; it doesn’t consider other factors, such as weather or injuries. However, you can further improve your predictions by considering these additional factors.
Note that bookmakers also use the Poisson football distribution (or a similar method) to set their odds. That means the odds you see on a given match do not necessarily reflect the actual probabilities. To find value bets, you need to identify cases where your probability estimation is higher than the bookmaker’s estimate.
Find value in world cup 2022 odds
Now that you know how bookmakers set their odds, it’s time to start looking for value bets. Remember, value betting is where the probability of an event happening is higher than the bookmakers’ odds imply. It’s important to only bet on value bets because, over the long run, you will end up profitable.
To find value bets, you need to do your homework and research each team thoroughly. Consider the following factors:
- The relative strengths of the teams. If two relatively strong teams are playing each other, it’s likely that the bookmaker has accurately estimated the chances of either team winning. However, if one team is much stronger, there may be value in betting on that team.
- Recent forms and results. Has a team been consistently winning or losing? Are they coming off a big victory or defeat? These factors can influence a bookie’s FIFA World Cup Odds and help you find value bets.
- Injuries and suspensions. A key player being out injured can significantly affect a team’s performance (and hence their probability of winning). Make sure to check for updates on football injuries before placing your bet.
- Weather forecast. If inclement weather is expected, it could impact the game and affect your bet. For example, if a team relies on speed and agility to win games, wet conditions could hinder its performance.
- Other relevant factors. When looking for value bets, anything influencing the match’s outcome should be considered. This could include the motivation of a team (are they playing for pride or points?), home-field advantage, and even political factors.
Remember, the goal is to find bets where your probability estimation is higher than the bookmaker’s estimate. Doing this gives you an edge and increases your chances of winning in the long run.
Use bankroll management to control risks
Once you’ve found some value bets, it’s time to start placing your wagers. But before you do, it’s essential to understand bankroll management to minimize risks. Bankroll management controls the amount of money you put at risk when gambling. The Kelly Criterion is a popular bankroll management method that tells you how much to bet on each value bet.
The Kelly Criterion is relatively simple to calculate. First, you need to estimate the probability of your bet winning and the odds offered by the bookmaker. Then, use the following formula:
Percent of bankroll to risk = ((b*p – q) / b
Where:
- b = odds offered by the bookmaker minus 1.
- p = estimated probability of your bet winning.
- q = 1 – p (estimated probability of your bet losing).
Using the Kelly Criterion, you will always know exactly how much to bet on each value bet. This ensures you minimize risks and maximize your chances of going ahead in the long run.
Generally, you should only bet 1-2% of your bankroll on each value bet. This may seem like a small amount, but over time it will add up (especially if you’re consistently finding profitable bets).
Who will win the FIFA world cup 2022?
There’s no easy answer to who will win FIFA world cup 2022. It depends on various factors, including team strength, draw luck, and form leading up to the event. However, if you research and find value bets, you give yourself a better chance of profiting from the World Cup.
The best way to find value bets is to make a statistical sport model. This will help you estimate each team’s probability of winning and identify value bets. It should consider various factors, including recent form and team strength. For instance, you can consider the results of the 5 most recent games, injuries, and weather conditions.
One more factor to consider is the home advantage. As Qatar will be the first Arabic nation to host the FIFA World Cup 2022, it could boost them as home teams have traditionally done well in international tournaments. The home advantage won’t impact if you bet on a match between a European or South American team.
As for the weather, all stadiums in Qatar are equipped with air-conditioning to ensure that the heat won’t be a factor. It’s worth noting that the average temperature in Qatar during December (the month when the World Cup will be played) is a comfortable 23 degrees Celsius. Therefore, the playing conditions should be ideal.
Best betting sites to use for world cup betting
While many online sports betting sites can be used to bet on the FIFA World Cup, not all bookmakers are created equal. When choosing a betting site, it’s essential to consider various factors such as safety, odds, and bonuses. It’s also crucial to ensure that the bookie is licensed and regulated by a reputable body. With a good betting platform, you can know that your money is safe and you’re getting a fair chance to win.
For your convenience, we’ve listed some of the best betting sites for betting on the FIFA World Cup below:
- Betway. One of the world’s best football betting sites with an excellent reputation for safety and security. They offer competitive odds and regularly run promotions that give you extra value. The Betway app is also one of the best in the industry.
- 20Bet Casino. This website provides everything, from casino games to sports betting. The football odds are pretty competitive, and they offer many bonuses that can be used on the World Cup. The site is also licensed by the Kawahakei Gambling Commission, making it a perfect choice for bettors from Canada.
- Ivibet Casino. Another excellent choice for online gambling, with a focus on casino games. They provide plenty of FIFA World Cup betting markets and allow you to bet in various currencies. The site is also mobile-friendly, so you can easily place bets on the go.
- Unibet. It’s a safe, secure, and user-friendly betting site licensed by a reputable regulator. It has competitive odds on all football markets, including the Qatar soccer tournament. You can also take advantage of various World Cup betting promotions, making betting even more enjoyable.
- Bet365. It is one of the largest and most popular online sportsbooks. It’s available worldwide and offers a wide range of markets for the FIFA World Cup. The bookmaker also offers live streaming for many games, allowing you to watch and bet on matches from your computer or mobile device.
These are just a few examples. Be sure to do your research before choosing a bookmaker, as many other great options are available. With some research, you’ll indeed find a platform that suits your needs.
World cup betting promotions
When looking for a sportsbook to bet on the World Cup, it’s essential to compare each platform’s various betting bonuses. Many bookies will offer special deals specifically for the event, which can give you extra value. Below are some promos that might be available:
- Matched deposit bonus. The most common type of promotion is where the bookmaker matches your first deposit up to a certain amount. For example, if you deposited $50 into your account, they would add $50 as a bonus. This gives you more money with which to bet on the World Cup but check out wagering requirements before withdrawing any winnings made with bonus funds!
- Risk-free bets/money-back promo. Another excellent way to get extra value from betting on the FIFA World Cup is by taking advantage of risk-free bets or money-back specials offered by some bookmakers. With these promos, you can place a bet without fear of losing your stake if it doesn’t come through – either receiving your money back or being credited with a free bet.
- Enhanced odds. Bookmakers offer enhanced prices on specific markets, allowing you to boost your profits if your selection is successful. Be sure to compare the best World Cup 2022 odds for each match before placing any bets!
There are various other betting promotions that might be available, so make sure to keep an eye out for any offers. With some luck, you can snag some extra value from your World Cup soccer betting.
World cup soccer betting markets to pay attention
Modern sportsbooks offer various betting markets for the FIFA World Cup. From the outright winner to the top goalscorer, there are hundreds of markets to choose from. Indeed, you can find value bets in any market, but some markets are more efficient than others. Understanding the difference between these markets is important before you start placing bets. Below, we’ve listed the most popular World Cup betting markets and briefly explained each one.
Handicap betting
A handicap bet is a type of wager where the bookmaker gives one team an advantage (represented by +) or disadvantage (represented by -) before the game starts. The goal of handicap betting is to level the playing field so that both teams have an equal chance of winning.
For example, consider a match between Argentina (-1.5) and Poland(+1.5). In this case, Argentina would need to win by two goals or more for you to profit from your bet. Similarly, if you bet on Poland, they can lose by one goal, and you will still win your wager.
Handicap betting is often used in games with a significant difference in quality between the two teams. It is an efficient market because it allows you to find value bets even when one team is heavily favored.
Qatar soccer prediction 1×2
The 1×2 market is the most popular soccer betting market. In this market, you simply bet on which team will win (1), lose (2), or draw (X). For example, consider a match between the USA and Wales. If you think that the USA will win, you would bet on 1; if you believe it will be a draw, your pick would be X; and if you expect Wales to come out victorious, then 2 would be your selection.
This market is efficient because bookmakers set their odds based on public opinion. That means there is usually little value to be found in this market unless you have inside information about a particular team. As a general rule, the 1×2 market is best suited for casual bettors who want to make simple but effective predictions.
Use another football betting strategy to get profit on Qatar 2022
While finding value bets is a great way to be profitable in the long run, it’s not the only football betting strategy you can use. Consider using other systems if you want to win more bets and make decent profits. Their effectiveness may vary, but they can all help you turn a profit if used correctly.
Arbitrage betting
Arbitrage betting is a technique that allows bettors to place bets on all possible outcomes of an event and still make a profit. This is possible because bookmakers often differ in their odds for the same event, creating opportunities for arbitrageurs (those who practice arbitrage betting) to exploit.
For example, let’s say there are two bookmakers offering different odds for a match between Ecuador and Qatar:
Bookmaker 1: Ecuador – 2.00; Tie – 3.50; Qatar – 3.60
Bookmaker 2: Ecuador – 1.90; Tie – 3.70; Qatar – 4.00
An arbitrageur would bet $100 on each outcome at Bookmaker 1 and $110 on each outcome at Bookmarker 2. If any team wins, they will earn a profit because the total amount won ($300 or more) will be greater than the total amount wagered ($330).
The main challenge with arbitrage betting is finding enough bookmakers offering different odds for the same event. This can be difficult, especially for high-profile events like the World Cup, where most bookies offer similar odds. Nevertheless, if you can find an opportunity for arbitrage betting, it can be a great way to win money from sports betting.
Middle betting strategy
Middle betting is a football betting strategy that’s often used by professional bettors. It involves placing bets on both sides of the same bet at different lines. The opportunity arises when a line has moved since the original bet was placed. Generally, you can find these situations for handicaps or game totals.
To use the middle betting strategy, you must place two bets covering all possible match outcomes. For example, let’s say Germany is playing Japan, and the total goals for the game are set at 2.5 by the bookmaker. You initially bet on Over 2.5 goals being scored. Now, let’s say that, after some time, the line moves to 3.5 goals. This also presents an opportunity to bet on the Under 3.5 goals. Now, regardless of how many goals are scored in the game, you will win one of your bets. And if there will be exactly 3 goals scored, you will win both bets.
Polish middle betting
Polish middle betting is often called inverted middle betting. It’s a football betting strategy that consists of placing two bets on the same game but with different handicaps. The aim is to win one bet and lose the other, resulting in a small profit.
To use this strategy, you need to find games with significant differences in opinion between bookmakers regarding which team will win. This usually happens when there are heavy favorites playing against underdogs. Then, you must place two opposing bets using the same stake at different lines. For example, you bet on Brazil (-2.5) with odds of 2.20 and Serbia (+1.5) with odds of 2.20.
If Brazil wins by 3 or more goals, you will win your first bet. And if Brazil A wins by 1 goal, or if Serbia manages to get a draw or win the game, you will win your second bet. This results in a small profit of 10% regardless of the outcome. However, if Brazil wins by 2 goals, you will lose both bets. This is why you need to be careful when using this strategy and only do it when you’re highly confident in your prediction.
Use betting bonuses to make odds in your favor
As we’ve seen, bookmakers always try to set their odds so that they make a profit in the long run. But there’s one way you can get an advantage over them: by using betting offers.
Many online bookies offer special deals and bonuses to encourage new sign-ups and keep existing customers happy. These offers can be extremely valuable if used correctly. For example, some football betting sites will give you additional funds (in the form of free bets) if you place your first bet with them – essentially giving you extra money to play with.
Bonuses significantly boost your bankroll – they give you more funds to bet with and allow you to make bigger bets. This, in turn, gives you a much better chance of finding value bets and coming out ahead in the long run.
As well as bonuses, many bookies offer promos and specials on certain markets. For example, they may give enhanced odds on sure bets or refund your stake if a specific team wins. These offers can be highly profitable if used correctly – keep your eyes peeled for them during the World Cup!
Betting offers withdrawal terms
Before you can withdraw any winnings from betting bonuses or promotions, bookies will require you to meet certain conditions. These are typically known as ‘rollover requirements’ or ‘wagering requirements.’ For example, a common rollover requirement is to bet the value of your bonus (or deposit) x number of times before cashing out. So, if you deposited $100 and got a $100 bonus with 5x wagering requirements, you would need to place bets totaling $500 before being able to withdraw any money.
While this may seem like a lot at first glance, it’s actually not too difficult to reach – especially if you’re placing value bets. Remember: if your probability estimation is correct more often than not, you should come out ahead despite the rollover requirements. The Poisson distribution can help you find value bets by identifying matches where your probability estimation is higher than the bookies.
As well as this, bookies may also impose minimum odds requirements on their bonuses. For example, they might state that all bets must be placed at odds of 1.5 or higher to contribute towards the rollover requirement. Be sure to check the terms and conditions of any bonus or promo before placing a bet – this will help you avoid any nasty surprises further down the line.
Conclusion
The 2022 FIFA World Cup promises to be one of the most exciting betting events in recent memory. With so much at stake, it’s essential to do your homework and find an edge over the bookmakers. While Brazil, France, and Argentina are the 2022 World Cup favorites, don’t sleep on teams like Belgium, Spain, and England – all of which also may have a say in who lifts the trophy.
By understanding how bookies set their odds and recognizing value bets, you can put yourself in a position to profit from the tournament. Be sure to use various strategies and consider all factors before placing any bets. Also, don’t forget about choosing the best sports betting sites and getting promotions, as they can boost your bankroll.
